Weather or Climate change?
It's hard to know whether individual weather events are just
random fluctuations, or whether they are growing signs of
climate change. What we need to look for are patterns- is the
weather changing? And how do the changes that are actually
happening compare to those predicted for climate change?
Three years ago, two federal government departments (Natural
Resources Canada and Health Canada) published reports on the
damage climate change was already doing to Canada, and what we
should expect to follow. No one paid much attention, but the
predictions just keep coming true, in Canada and around the
world.
Time to read only one? Health Canada predicted that global
warming would increase Canadians' exposure to diseases that are
endemic in animals, including: bubonic plague. Plague? In
Canada?!? The black death that killed one third of the
population of medieval Europe? Last week, Parks Canada announced
that a prairie dog in a national park had been found, dead of….
bubonic plague. i
NRCan's report, From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a
Changing Climate 2007 ii, predicted summer
heatwaves that are more extreme and longer, leading to deaths,
reduced crop growth and wildfires. This year looks as if it will
be the hottest year in recorded history. iii Wildfires
burned again in BC. The Yukon had 32,000 hectares of forest
burned by early June. iv Quebec's May forest fires
required people to evacuate their homes, and burned over 350
square miles (880 square kilometres) in a week. v
A recent study says that heat waves have already surpassed
worst-case projections, but will become more intense and
unpredictable. vi Toronto's sweltering summer pales
against what is happening in other northern countries. As we
write, everyone who can is fleeing Moscow because of fire and
smoke vii ; Russia has had an estimated 15,000 deaths
from heat. viii The heat is also predicted to
reduce Russian agricultural and industrial output by $1.5
trillion.
Here are more of NRCan's 2007 predictions, compared to recent
news reports (in italics):
Northern Canada will see decreases in permafrost, sea and
lake ice and snow cover. Recent research confirms: the Devon
Island ice cap, one of the largest and most important arctic ice
masses, has been shrinking steadily since 1985. ix
Arctic ice cover may be at its lowest level in several
thousand years. x There will be a shift in the
types and number of species of plants and animals, with
competition by species that move north, and introduction of new
diseases. An epidemic of spruce bark beetle will likely lead to
decimation of white spruce trees.
There will be more frequent and intense storms in Atlantic
Canada. Sea levels will rise, increasing erosion of
the coastline and flooding. Storms in Nova Scotia and
New Brunswick brought power failure and flooding in February.
xi Last year brought record wet weather.
xii
In Québec and Ontario, extreme weather,
like heat waves, drought, intense rain, ice- and wind-storms,
will be more frequent, stressing water, energy and
transportation infrastructures. Much of southern
Ontario and Quebec is facing dry to record dry conditions this
year. xiii Near-record-low precipitation has
deprived hydroelectricity operators of the water levels needed
to turn they turbines. xiv Ontario had an
astonishing 29 tornados in 2009. xv
The Prairies will see a shift in fire and insect
disturbances, and an increase in non-native species. Water
will become more scarce; wildfires and severe floods will occur
more often. Northern Prairies are exceptionally dry this
year, while the south wallows in very wet conditions. xvi
In July, heavy rain triggered the most severe flooding ever seen
in Yorkton, Saskatchewan. xvii Calgary had
$400 million in hail damage in July, one of Canada's most
expensive storms ever. xviii Last year, the Red
River had record floods.
Some regions of British Columbia will have more water
shortages, and more competition among uses for the water (e.g.,
for power, irrigation, municipalities, recreation). A melting
glacier triggered an avalanche of mud near Pemberton this month,
resulting in evacuation of 1500 residents. xix xx
Fires and pest infestations will affect forests. Last year,
there was a 7-fold increase in BC forest fires. xxi
The largest known outbreak of mountain pine beetle has killed
millions of trees, and is spreading rapidly.
Coincidence or pattern? I'm worried; are you?
i
http://www.health.gov.sk.ca/prairie-dog
ii
http://www.adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/full-complet_e.pdf
iii
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/its-the-hottest-year-in-recorded-history/article1643338/
iv CBC news. Yukon mine braces for wildfire.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/north/story/2010/06/02/yukon-nwt-ffire-conditions.html
v Bloomberg. Quebec Forest Fires Send Smoke, Haze South to
Boston (Update2). May 31 2010.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-31/quebec-forest-fires-send-smoke-haze-south-to-boston-update2-.html
vi Ganguly et al., Higher Trends But Larger Uncertainty And
Geographic Variability In 21st Century Temperature And Heat
Waves, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009.
Fulltext at
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15555.full.pdf+html
vii
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/europe/smoke-from-forest-fires-choke-russian-capital/article1664389/
viii Bloomberg. Russia heat wave may kill 15,000, shave $15
billion of GDP. Sugust 10 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-08-
10/russia-may-lose-15-000-lives-15-billion-of-economic-output-in-heat-wave.html
ix Boon S et al. Forty-seven years of research on the Devon
Island ice cap, Arctic Canada. Arctic 2010 March;63(1):13-29.
See news report "Decades of research show massive Arctic ice cap
is shrinking". EurekAlert Apr 12 2010. At
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-04/aion-dor041210.php
x
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/06/arctic-ice-cover-at-lowest-point-past-several-thousand-years.php
xi CBC news. Power outages, flooding still concern N.B., N.S.
February 28 2010.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nova-scotia/story/2010/02/28/nb-ns-power-outage-flood-red-cross-254.html
xii Environment Canada. Canada's Top Ten Weather Stories
For 2009
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=en&n=645a8f9c-1
xiii Drought Watch,
http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/nlrl365dy_e.htm
xiv Globe and Mail, August 12, 2010.
http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20100813.RBPOWERHYDROMCCARTHYATL/TPStory/?query=Companies
xv Environment Canada. Canada's Top Ten Weather Stories For 2009
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=en&n=645a8f9c-1
xvi
http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/nlrl365dy_e.htm
xvii CBC news. Flood emergency declared in Yorkton, Sask.
July 2 2010.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2010/07/02/sk-yorkton-flood-1007.html
xviii
http://www.ibc.ca/en/Media_Centre/News_Releases/2010/08-11-2010.asp
xix Times Colonist. 13 campers airlifted after melting
glacier triggers avalanche
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/airlifted+after+landslides+tourist+spot/3368909/story.html
xx Vancouver Sun. 40-million-cubic-metre Pemberton
avalanche second only to Hope Slide. August 9 2010
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/million+cubic+metre+Pemberton+avalanche+second+only+Hope+Slide/3372960/story.html
xxi Environment Canada. Canada's Top Ten Weather Stories
For 2009
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=en&n=645a8f9c-1
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